One of George Orwell’s finest novels Burmese Days evoked the trials, tribulations and passions of this land in the twilight of British colonial rule. That would end with a brutal interlude by Japan during WWII, followed by independence in 1948. This stunningly beautiful and resource-rich country of 56 million could have been one of Southeast Asia’s most promising success stories. In the early years Burma had a good chance for success but by 1962 a succession of left-wing military regimes ruled the country and put it on the socialist road to ruin.

In 1988 massive pro- democracy demonstrations were crushed in a bloody military crackdown. But later a brief political thaw allowed free elections and the human rights campaigner Aung San Su Kyi won the vote. The results were soon overturned by the military and Nobel peace prize laureate Aung San Su Kyi remains under house arrest.

There is something Orwellian in the Burmese regime; they changed the name of the country from Burma to Myanmar, the capital Rangoon to Yangoon, and then moved the capital inland fearing an invasion. Naturally they deny or downplay the size and effect and treatment of mass protests on the streets and instinctively blame the “neo-colonialists” for the troubles. Despite near global criticism for their actions, the Burmese military, marinated in corruption, still counts on the People’s Republic of China to cover their political flank.

Sino-Burmese relations go back a millennia, but in recent times it was Burma who became the first non-communist country to recognize Mao’s People’s Republic of China in 1949, and before long evolved into one of Beijing’s closest commercial and political comrades. China remains a major investor and customer for Burma’s energy sector and equally views its strategic location on the Indian Ocean as a back door for shipping, trade and naval facilities.

In direct parallel to Western efforts mostly by the United States, Britain and France to press for human rights, Beijing has unapologetically thrown its weight in the UN Security Council to block even the most polite criticisms. In January, a Chinese and Russian double veto shot down a draft resolution. Recently Beijing’s threat froze what was to be another Security Council consideration of the deteriorating human rights situation in Burma. China’s Marxist mandarins realize that the cost of supporting Burma’s military rulers could have collateral political damage on the upcoming Beijing Olympics in 2008.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon dispatched a human rights envoy to Burma to press the military regime for concessions. Ibrahim Gambari was kept waiting a few days before being allowed a collective audience with the junta Generals. Ban later called the Burmese junta’s use of force on peaceful protesters as “abhorrent and unacceptable”.

President George W. Bush called for human rights in Burma and tightened American sanctions on the Rangoon regime. Austria’s Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik started her speech with an appeal for an ”immediate cessation of violence, the bloodshed has to stop democratic rights, the freedom of expression and of assembly have to be respected.” Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel stated, “I urge the government not to use force against the peaceful demonstrators and finally to make way for a democratic future for the country.” Neighboring India said not a word, nor did the Foreign Ministers of the Russian Federation or China. Why am I not surprised?

Hopes for Buddhist monks and other pro-democracy dissidents to lead a Saffron Revolution in Burma mirroring the Orange revolution in Ukraine seem in animated suspension as the junta appears to hold the upper hand. Economic and political pressures on the regime from the regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a major trading bloc (74% of Burmese exports go there), the UN, along with continued Western focus could force change.

Events in far-off Burma this autumn somehow recall the equally optimistic October uprising in Hungary in 1956 where the people dared to confront the communist dictatorship and the Soviet Union. Here too an anguished world watched, the diplomats made stirring speeches, and then the Iron curtain slammed down with a vengeance ending this morality play on the streets of Budapest. The clanking of Soviet tanks was soon replaced by the deafening silence of the graveyard. Hungary had returned to “normal.” Ironically Rangoon’s Foreign Minister stated “Normalcy has now returned in Myanmar.” How Orwellian!