Iraq and Middle East — First some good news, or at least less bad news. After a terrible and violent start in 2007, the American military troop surge seems to have turned the corner and tipped the balance away from the terrorists. While the conflict is far from won, the surge appears to have disrupted the momentum of the militants and significantly sapped their political propaganda gains. The lull in violence has given Iraqis an opportunity for a hard won peace. Despite cheap grandstanding and the drumbeat of doom by the Democratic-led Congress, the Bush Administration appears to have ridden the wave of reversals. Still it’s up to the freely elected Baghdad government to get its political act together, promote reconciliation, and stop relying on Allied coalition troops. Any precipitous American pullout will embolden the radicals and ensure wider Mid-East instability.

Pakistan enters a particularly dangerous period as Islamic jihadi forces try to derail or decapitate the democratic electoral process in January; the terrorist assassination of Benizir Bhutto threatens to put the country on the road to chaos. Afghanistan sadly has seen a surge in Islamic Taliban insurgency and tiny Lebanon is again the crosshairs of Syrian ambitions. As for U.S. national intelligence estimates that the Islamic Republic of Iran has put its nuclear weapons on hold, may I say, “Would you really trust Teheran’s Atomic Ayatollahs?”

East Asia — There’s a massive political sea change in South Korea. Recent Presidential elections, voted in conservative Lee Myung-bak by a landslide. The increasingly anti-American rhetoric coming from Seoul in the past few years and the optimistically unrealistic South Korean policies towards communist North Korea will undergo a thoughtful and realistic policy reassessment. Washington/Seoul relations will improve.

Presidential elections are on the horizon in the Republic of China on Taiwan too. Here the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is under assault for pressing for a provocative political agenda promoting Taiwan “independence” with all the trappings. Such a path which would disrupt the status quo across the Taiwan Straits, has needlessly alienated Washington, and could provoke the Chinese communists thus risking an East Asian conflict. The March vote will likely provide a last opportunity to redirect Taipei’s policies from the path of possible confrontation with Mainland China to protecting Taiwan’s hard won de facto independence, freedom and prosperity.

The Beijing Olympics loom on the Summer horizon in August. While the People’s Republic will turn the games into a propaganda bonanza, the real geopolitical dangers commence after the Olympic torch leaves China. In the past few years, the People’s Republic has played Mr. Nice Guy, even towards Taiwan. This can change like a typhoon front from late 2008 and into 2010.

Euroland — The past year has witnessed a significant shift from leftist governments who were hyper-critical of the United States to a more realistic posture underscoring the common ground in Trans-Atlantic relations. France elected a maverick conservative (small c) Nicholas Sarkozy and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centrist coalition government is usually on the same page with Washington.

The Balkan land of Kosovo will most likely gain full independence from Serbia and shall move under the wing and largesse of the European Union switching from the United Nations. NATO’s KFOR military units will provide the protection for the process. The increasingly assertive Russian bear can complicate things. President Vladimir Putin has brought muscular geopolitics back into the Kremlin’s leitmotif and deployed new missile systems financed with the rush of petrodollars.

The threat of Islamic militant sponsored terrorism will not significantly recede and EU police agencies will usually be one step ahead of the militants.

Energy — The dependence on imported energy supplies remains a lurking danger to Western economies. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez grip on massive petroleum reserves and exports to the USA poses serious risks.

United Nations — The UN gears up for its largest global mission—Darfur. The long- suffering region in Sudan will finally get the UN peacekeeping forces deployment. Finally, too little, too late.

Happy New Year!