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Friday, May 25, 2007
Can India buy its way to security?
Traipsing after the Chinese model, India’s export-led economy is roaring along – at least by Subcontinental standards. GNP is advancing at nearly 9 percent. Indian business confidence is high – not least in IT as outsourcing exports jumped to nearly $32 billion this year. Indian family business fortunes, some of the largest in the world, are prowling the globe for multibillion dollar acquisitions. [Do they know something foreigners don’t about investing in India?] Indian exports to the U.S. reached more than $18 billion last year. And although several huge foreign direct investments [Wall-Mark, for example] are still stuck on paper in India’s infernal bureaucracy, U.S. and foreign firms are inveigling their way into what the world increasingly thinks is “a shinning India”.
Parallel to this economic take-off is a consensus India is taking its place among the world’s major military powers It is a counter, many Washington strategists hope, to China’s growing war machine – excessive beyond any identifiable enemy. India, soon to have the world’s largest population, it’s argued, could provide an alternative development model to China’s Communist leftovers, a civil society but with the great tradition of the British Indian army, military clout.
In pursuit of that goal, New Delhi is splurging on big military toys. With Pakistan’s Chinese and North Korea missile borrowing always in mind -- and Islamabad’s own nuclear matching New Delhi’s -- that means expensive hi tech. India’s annual defense budget has grown by 9.2 percent to more than $20 billion in 2006, up 40 percent since 2002. With more than 1.3 million active personnel, India’s has the world’s third-largest military [after China and the United States).
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Over the next five years India is expected to buy $30 billion worth of howitzers, tanks, helicopters, fighter aircraft, maritime reconnaissance aircraft, transport aircraft, , etc., etc. New Delhi will buy more foreign military equipment this year than China [although Beijing’s total defense expenditure is considerably larger than India’s. That’s continuing 2004 and 2005 when India spent $11 billion on foreign acquisitions compared to China’s $5 billion.]
This buying spree is partly explained as simply catch-up for 20 years dawdling. There are problems: procurement corruption in high places never satisfactorily resolved over several decades but continuing; a current impasse with Russia, still India’s largest military provider, over pricing of a refitted aircraft carrier and its complement New Delhi probably should not have bought; a brewing scandal over a deal with Israel, now India’s almost equally large supplier; technological scandals in almost all indigenous major weaponry production [two crashes at India’s major air-sales show earlier this year], including a decades-long scandal of MIG crashes and poor pilot training, etc., etc.
But a still larger question begs: granted New Delhi’s primary strategic problem must continue to be its unresolved feud with its neighbor Pakistan [at the moment quiescent] requiring increasingly state-of-the-art gadgetry, is Indian strategy pointed in the right direction?
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, an economist after a career-long romance with planning, is mesmerized by the problems of undoing 35 years of autarky. And he’s up against continued hypocritical backbiting by his two Communist Party allies, crucial to his parliamentary majority, and his major political opposition, purported proponents of capitalism but now out of power turning on their own ethos.
But any casual glance around India’s periphery and at her internal law and order indicates a far more burdensome problem may not be grappled: strengthening India’s ability to deal with low-intensity conflict inside and outside the country and on its borders.
A year after they murdered their way into sharing power, Nepal’s self-proclaimed Maoists have violated all promises. They recruit child soldiers, extort civilians, disrupt government, call strikes and demonstrations. Other political parties – including the now isolated King – appear powerless against their building a Stalinist state. There is no geographic obstacle between Nepal – “a princely state” only by accident of history not incorporated into independent India – and the northern Indian plain. Furthermore, there are close connections between the Nepalese Maoists and Indian Maoists and two Communist Parties.
The Indian government observes ceasefires with nine militant groups in Assam, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura, in its isolated northeast bordering China’s Tibet and its tacit ally, Burma. But the ceasefires have failed [except for Tripura]. Chinese and Burmese black marketers have supplied these insurgents in the past with weapons and ammunition and sanctuary.
Members of parliament have reported Chinese infiltration of contested areas of Arunchal Pradesh, the northeast Indian state Beijing claims. New Delhi has denied new Chinese movement, and in fact has been meeting the Chinese in an effort to resolve the conflict, just surprisingly announcing without details it would hold joint maneuvers with the Chinese. But those were early warnings preceding New Delhi’s disastrous defeat in the brief 1962 Indo-Chinese War, which found Indian forces unprepared for combat in the high Himalayas. Roadbuilding on the Indian side of the disputed border has stalled while Beijing has completed a railway intoto the Tibetan capital and announced plans to extend it toward the Indian border. Bhutan, a bordering Himalayan state, has protested encroaching Chinese roadbuilding but recently renegotiated its treaty with India which once gave New Delhi control of its foreign policy –anticipating new negotiations with Beijing to halt infiltration [on Chinese terms?]
The brutal Indian Naxalite movement, a Maoist offshoot of the pro-Beijing wing of the Communist Party [Marxist] of India in control of Kolkata, India’s third port city and close to its steel heartland, has exploded into nine Indian states. Their expressed strategy is to create a “red belt” stretching from Nepal into central India. Over the last two years, Naxalites have upped their assassination of police, teachers, landlords and other representatives of the established order in classic imitation of Mao Tse-tung’s doctrines. The central government has left the anti-Naxalite campaign to the states with, for the most part, inadequate resources to cope.
Kashmir, which remains the unresolved problem on which hang all complaints in the India-Pakistan feud dating from the Partition of British India in 1947, continues as an almost daily scene of violence. That’s despite New Delhi’s 600,000 security forces [deployed in an area about the size of Idaho]. Terrorists’ attacks – some of them trained and infiltrated from Pakistan’s tribal areas – are often at the very doorstep of Indian occupying forces.
Bangladesh, which India “liberated” in the short 1971 war with Pakistan, continues a failed state, a sanctuary for anti-Indian guerrillas inside their 1500 mile unpoliceable border, a source of continuing refugees into India’s volatile West Bengal state, and, increasingly, home to Islamofascists. A military takeover in all but name earlier this year promises no surcease for India for China supplies its arms, and is the country’s largest investor.
The 30-year-old revolt of the Tamil Tigers seeking a separate state in Sri Lanka on the Subcontinent’s southern tip – and pursuit of unification with 45 million Tamils on the mainland – has got a new lease on life through naïve Norwegian arbitration. Indian military planners talked openly at a recent conference about the possibility of an attack on its nuclear facilities by the Tamil Tigers’ new “air force” – a half dozen Italian light planes it has managed to get into the country and used to “bomb” the Colombo airport. Inventors of modern suicide bombers, the Tamil Tigers get their funding from sympathizers and extortion in India and among Tamils abroad and smuggle in arms and supplies through the south Indian coastal waters.
These are some of the problems the Indian military face in the months and years ahead. And as the Americans have found to their dismay in Iraq, the best high tech inventory is not necessarily an answer to asymmetrical warfare waged by a skilful opponent.
Acknowledging the problem of quality rather than quantity of its conventional military, the Indian Army has announced it will begin to downsize to become more fighting fit, initially by 27,000 over a period of 18 months, retiring "low medical category" soldiers. [Some 60 percent of the military budget is spent on personnel and – by Indian standards – generous retirement pensions.] But that is a small beginning for an overhaul long since belated.
Sol W. Sanders, (solsanders@cox.net),
is an Asian specialist with more than 25 years in the region, and a former correspondent
for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report and United Press International.
He writes weekly for World Tribune.com and East-Asia-Intel.com.
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