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John Metzler Archive
Friday, April 4, 2008

Comrade Mugabe teeters on the brink of his political grave

UNITED NATIONS — After nearly thirty years of undisputed power, Zimbabwe’s long-time leader Comrade Robert Mugabe may be nearing the end of his electoral luck. Hotly contested and Presidential and Parliamentary elections slapped the Mugabe regime with a humiliating loss in parliament and have brought a neck and neck presidential contest into a second round. The stunning setbacks for Mugabe’s Marxist Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) signals a political backlash to incompetent one-party rule as much as they show a seedling of democracy may have taken hold in this beautiful but benighted Southern African land.

Despite the intimidation, patronage and sheer power of Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF party, the longtime but sidelined rival Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) won the majority of parliamentary seats and fell just short of winning the presidency. Election results, which began a tense trickle out days after the ballot, showed an opposition victory, and thus the tightly controlled government media, tried to slow the process. Fully six days after the vote, there was still no published official tally of the presidential results leading observers to conclude the obvious.

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Despite a second round slated in a few weeks, it seems that Comrade Mugabe’s political magic has been broken and the country is free to choose opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai with far less fear than usually accompanies Zimbabwe’s rigged elections.

But what is the prize for the victors? Zimbabwe, once a bountiful African breadbasket has sunk into a socialist basket case. A formerly rich agricultural land which exported food, now lives on the Peter’s pence of the UN’s World Food Program and its humanitarian aid. White owned farms and Asian business were illegally seized by the regime in 2000, which has had the practical effect of being the final straw in putting a rich land on the road to endemic poverty. Mugabe’s authoritarian government has now threatened to nationalize many foreign firms in the lucrative mining sector.

Millions of Zimbabwe’s people have fled to neighboring South Africa in search of jobs and freedom. Many have left for Britain, the former colonial power when this land was known as Rhodesia. Inside the country, life expectedly has reached dismally low levels and the incidence of HIV/AIDS stalks the land like the grim reaper. Human rights abuses are widespread and the press is gagged. In 2005 Mugabe launched a “cleansing” operation which forced people from their homes in urban areas, which according to the UN, displaced 700,000 people.

Two areas of growth have been unemployment, which now nears 80 percent and inflation which has reached over 100,000 percent. This tragic lesson in hyperinflation means that at the official exchange rate, one U.S. Dollar brings 30,000 Zimbabwe dollars; the real rate remains that one American greenback buys 55 Million Zimbabwe dollars! I guess Mugabe kept his promise to make his people prosperous!

During the nervous wait for the election results, rumors have swirled about what happens next. Neighboring South Africa, anxious not to see a total collapse of their neighbor, has discreetly played a role to broker a soft landing. Fears of violence are just below the surface. The army and police still appear to be in Mugabe’s corner.

Just a week before the election Mugabe (now 84) boasted, “Never in my lifetime will the Movement for Democratic Change rule this county, that will never happen.”

Nonetheless as a Financial Times dispatch ponders, “There comes a time in all decaying regimes when its enforcers and senior functionaries sense that a ‘tipping point’ may be near and that it is expedient to start making discreet contacts with the opposition. That delicate moment now appears to be at hand for ZANU-PF. The party’s core, though, shaky, has not disintegrated.”

South Africa’s Business Day newspaper advised, “It is beginning to seem just possible that one of the ugliest regimes in Africa, and one of its most tyrannical leaders, could soon be peaceably and democratically removed from power and office.”

So what can the outside world do? First and foremost, keep watching and don’t let Mugabe escape the light of truth and media attention. Secondly, the United Nations and its World Food Program must keep the humanitarian pipeline open to pull the country through the approaching Winter season so there’s food and medicine. Third, given a possibly democratic future, many refugees will return fairly quickly but there must be more than promises to greet them. The USA and European Union aid agencies must make entrepreneurial loans available to revive this once prosperous land and foreign firms must be assured of their place in society and in turn then can invest free from the fear of nationalization.

Zimbabwe is perilously close to total collapse. The people of Zimbabwe have now finally spoken; President Mugabe, it is time to go!


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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