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John Metzler Archive
Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Pundits, and the media, proven wrong in New Hampshire primary

Keene, New Hampshire — The political pundits, both the pollsters and in the major media, were proven wrong in New Hampshire. Their almost giddy predictions that Senator Barack Obama would trounce Hillary Clinton in the primary election were incorrect. Thus when the actual votes were counted in first in the nation presidential primary, there were two comeback “kids”: Senator Hillary Clinton on the Democrat side, and Senator John McCain of the Republicans. New Hampshire’s contrarian and independent nature reaffirmed itself yet again.

A political winter carnival atmosphere, with blizzards of colorful candidate lawn signs bright against the snow and door to door campaigning, were part of the scene. Tiny towns and picture postcard villages are put under the media microscope and become, as every four years, the political laboratory for the USA. But this once staunchly Republican state has turned increasingly Democratic over the recent years.

While the media blames the polls for miscalculating the Democratic party result with Clinton beating Obama 39 to 37 percent, the media themselves may have driven many of these meteoric poll results, especially Obama’s post-Iowa surge.

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Reasons? The Media was effusive in its praise and enthusiasm for Obama in his post-Iowa bounces into New Hampshire. The media thus turned this wave of seeming “inevitability” into higher raw poll numbers for Obama’s candidacy. So it is not just the pollsters, but many major media liberals who favor Obama over Clinton. Though Clinton was the frontrunner in the race for a long time, her stunning defeat in Iowa did bring a reality check into the contest. She was indeed vulnerable.

But despite all the political obits that were on the verge of being written about Hillary, the Senator from New York is still Bill Clinton’s wife. This means that the powerful Clinton political machine is behind her with impressive organization and money. They know how to win elections. Remember this.

Obama, whose contagious enthusiasm heralds positives, nonetheless simply does not have the experience. Goodwill and enthusiasm will not turn Al Qaida terrorists into purring pussycats any more than speaking about change in a near messianic way will calm the turgid partisan political waters in Washington to allow for reform of massive federal spending, health care, and the fight against Islamic jihadi terrorism.

Speaking of change, recall that a generation ago Jimmy Carter was the heralded harbinger of change; and change he brought though most Americans would not think it was for the better. But as they say in New Hampshire, if you don’t like the weather, wait around a few minutes. In the space of a morning you may experience three seasons not all to your liking. That is change too, but not necessarily what you may have hoped for.

As for Hillary, another factor was telling: She’s just not that likable even among many democrats who, given the affable alternative of Obama, would be glad to themselves of this self-anointed dauphine of the Clinton political dynasty.

Then there’s John Edwards. One political commentator called him a wholly-owned subsidiary of the trade unions. And New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, the former UN ambassador and the most experienced and gregarious candidate, has already bowed out.

On the Republican side, Senator John McCain’s comeback from near political oblivion a few months ago was even more significant. Why? The Manchester Union Leader summed it up editorially, “He is not right on every issue. But he is right on most of them. And he has the courage and conviction to stand up—to the entire country, if necessary—and say what he believes even if he knows no one else agrees. Those are the marks of a leader, not a follower. They are the marks of a man who can be trusted to put his nation’s interests before his own.”

Let’s face it. John McCain had the courage to support the Bush Administration’s unpopular troop surge in Iraq; few then gathered round the Senator from Arizona. But he was proven right, and the surge has significantly improved the military situation in Iraq.

Mitt Romney, the accomplished former governor of Massachusetts came in second. He was the long time front runner in New Hampshire but was swamped by McCain’s wave.

Though many media were speaking about Obama’s near inevitability after the Iowa caucuses, the old saying that “a week is an eternity in politics” came to pass as the candidates’ standings changed radically after the New Hampshire primary. It’s still very early in the race. While election fatigue can set in, it is by no means over, and there will be many more weeks of surprises until November


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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