MAGA not taking any chances: Early voting ‘more important than the polls right now’

Analysis by WorldTribune Staff, October 23, 2024 Contract With Our Readers

Supporters of GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump are apparently leaving nothing to chance in 2024 and voting early in record numbers.

“Thanks to new early voting data, experts are starting to notice a pattern forming. If things stay as they are — or if the right continues to gain more early votes — it could be a game changer, turning election day into much less of a mystery,” Revolver News noted on Oct. 22.

In Nevada, as of Wednesday morning, Republicans had cast 12,000 more early votes than Democrats, according to Jon Ralston of The Daily Indy.

Nevada’s early returns show “333,000 people have voted, or 16.6 percent,” Ralston said. “If turnout reaches 1.4 million, that means just under a quarter of the vote is in.”

Mail-in votes, Ralston said, “pushed Clark County’s share of the vote to just under 73 percent, or right at registration. Washoe is 14 percent, or almost 3 points below reg and the rurals are at 13.3 percent, or 3 points above reg. Republicans have a 2.5 percent turnout edge.”

Ralston continued: “So Harris needs to be winning indies by double digits to be winning if she and Trump hold their bases. Repubs usually win Election Day, so you would still rather be them right now, but the question remains by the end of early voting if Election Day looks very different this year because so many Repubs, especially in rural Nevada, are voting early.”

In Georgia, nearly 2 million early votes were cast as of Tuesday, Michael Pruser reported for DecisionDeskHQ.

“Georgia was able to attract another 223,000 voters to the polls tonight, bringing its 2024 turnout to 1,934,585 voters,” Pruser said in a post to X. “This marks about 40% of the total expected turnout, the highest turnout of any state currently voting.”

Update from Arizona:

Update from North Carolina:

In Florida:

Former ABC News Political Director Mark Halperin says his inside sources are sounding the alarm, based on what’s happening with early voting:

“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that’s a big if, we will almost certainly know before Election Day who’s going to win the election. If these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we’ll know that Donald Trump is going to be president.”

Early voting data, Halperin says “is more important than the polls right now. It’s more important than almost anything, because it’s giving us insight into a variety of factors that are counting for a Republican overperformance by various metrics in the early voting in the battleground states.”

Revolver News added: “Sure, there are a lot of early voting ‘ifs’ that would need to align perfectly for the electoral landscape to shift. But even so, there’s no denying something is brewing beneath the surface that could send 2024 in a direction nobody predicted—straight back to the people, without the usual cheating and shenanigans. Wouldn’t that be a refreshing change of pace?”

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