Special to WorldTribune.com

By John J. Metzler, January 13, 2026

Global economic growth continues but at a more moderate pace. That’s the verdict from the UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 which predicts that global economic output will grow by 2.7 percent this year, or slightly below the 2.8 percent estimated for 2025 but less than the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 percent.

The annual survey asserts that “the global economy has shown resilience amid turbulence during the past year, including shifting trade policies …t hat a sharp increase in United States tariffs created new trade frictions.”

Nonetheless the report adds, “Unexpected resilience to the tariffs shock, supported by solid consumer spending and easing inflation, helped sustain growth but underlying weaknesses persist.”

“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape, generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities,” cautioned UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who warned, that “many developing economies continue to struggle.”

This statement without question reflects the global conflicts and simmering international tensions ranging from Ukraine to the Middle East and East Asia.

Some specifics…

• The United States remains the engine of global growth projected at 2.0 percent in 2026, compared to 1.9 percent in 2025, which has been supported by monetary and fiscal easing.

• European Union states however are forecast at 1.3 percent, down from 1.5 percent in 2025. This is ascribed to both higher U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

• East Asia has faced some economic jolts. East Asia’s growth is projected at 4.4 percent, down from 4.9 percent the previous year. China, the region’s largest economy is expected to grow by 4.6 percent, lower than in 2025. Meantime in the Republic of Korea, GDP growth declined from 2.0 percent in 2024 to an estimated 1.1 percent in 2025 but is forecast to reach 1.8 percent in 2026. South Korea is projected to see a pickup in growth this year backed by strong domestic demand.

• South Asia too is facing headwinds. The report states that growth is forecast at 5.6 percent in 2026, easing from 5.9 percent in 2025. Economic growth in India is projected to moderate from an impressive 7.4 percent in 2025 to 6.6 percent in 2026. “India’s expansion which the experts said, is driven by resilient consumption and substantial public investment,” the survey adds.

• Latin America is expected to expand by 2.3 percent this year, down slightly from 2.4 percent last year. Africa rounds out the globe with output projected to grow by 4.0 percent, a tiny rise from 3.9 percent in 2025. Here’s some good news though. In Latin America, gross public debt declined from 76.1 percent of GDP in 2020 to an estimated 70.7 percent in 2025.

Significantly, global trade expanded at a faster-than-expected 3.8 percent rate despite higher levels of policy uncertainty and rising tariffs.

Equally the bane of inflation which reached over 7 percent in 2021 has fortunately fallen. It has since declined from 4.0 percent in 2024, to an estimated 3.4 percent in 2025 and is projected to slow further to 3.1 percent this year. The significant decline in inflation, especially energy prices in key economies such as the United States is a prime reason for economic growth.

As to other specific regions;

• Russia/Ukraine: The economy of the Russian Federation is estimated to have grown by 0.8 percent in 2025. Economic activity lost momentum due to the war in Ukraine and the effects of Western sanctions. GDP growth is expected to reach only 1.0 percent in 2026. Ukraine’s economy remains battered by the war and “has experienced significant setbacks in 2025 following repeated attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.” The report adds GDP growth in 2025 is estimated at 1.5 percent. The outlook for 2026 depends on progress in ending the war and initiation reconstruction effects.” Such reconstruction is projected to cost over $524 billion over the next decade which will of course spur national rebuilding and construction.

The UN Report adds,“Global growth remains subdued amid high uncertainty and persistent structural headwinds. While the world economy has demonstrated resilience, ongoing trade tensions, geopolitical risks and fiscal strains continue to weigh on the outlook.”

Importantly these numbers and forecasts are subject to change. For example, U.S. GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2025 was at least 4.8 percent which likely leads to a higher average rates moving forward into 2026. The rising tide of the expanding American economy without question “lifts all boats” domestically and internationally.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]

  Expanding American economy ‘lifts all boats’ globally