Reading China’s tea leaves and the U.S. National Defense Strategy 2026

Special to WorldTribune.com

By John J. Metzler, February 2, 2026

Strange and mysterious events are transpiring inside the walls of Beijing’s Forbidden City.

In the massive nearby government compound Zhongnanhai there’s a clear unease as Communist Party Chief and military supremo Xi Jinping has shuffled the political cards in the powerful Central Military Commission, by purging his two top generals.

These unexpected actions at the highest levels of the People’s Republic of China raise yet another political enigma; Why?

Composed of seven members including Chairman Xi, the Central Military Commission (CMC), forms the Supreme military leadership body of China’s military services such as the powerful People’s Liberation Army and Navy. Moreover, the commission politically intertwines the military with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Situated in central Beijing, the CMC oversees Chinese armed forces, decides their strategy and courses of action, and manages their development, personnel and equipment.

Xi Jinping and Gen. Zhang Youxia attend a meeting of the Central Military Commission on Oct. 25, 2022 / Screenshot from CCTV footage

The Central Military Commission reflects the Communist Party’s control over the military and especially political oversight of the security forces.

Such recent events evoke the turbulent 1960’s era when Chairman Mao’s longtime confidante and presumed heir Marshall Lin Piao was purged only to have an unexplained “accident” while later fleeing China to the Soviet Union.

It’s a bit like an Agatha Christie thriller, “And then there were…?”

Since 2023, the CMC has been purged from seven to two members. To help explain the logic, Chairman Xi Jinping does not like military criticism, questioning nor adversarial advice.

Though Xi himself never served in the military, the two recent cuts concern some of the few generals who saw combat action, even though that was back in 1979 during China’s ill-fated war with Vietnam.

The announcement was terse and typical of the CCP apparat; A Jan. 24 communique by Chinese state media Xinhua/People’s Liberation Army Daily editorial, stated:

“The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has decided to investigate Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for suspected serious violations of discipline and law.”

The editorial further explained “Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, as senior cadres of the Party and the military, seriously betrayed the trust and expectations of the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission.”

Significantly the editorial accuses that the two disgraced Generals, “seriously fostered political and corruption problems that undermined the Party’s absolute leadership over the military and threatened the Party’s ruling foundation.” That’s crossing the ideological red line.

While Xi has regularly cracked down on numerous ranking officers with the broad brush accusations of corruption, cashiering the top two generals most likely stemmed from close and personal disagreements.

Many analysts suggest that Xi may have also perceived Zhang and Liu as being obstacles to his military modernization goals. Xi has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Some China analysts opine that Gen. Zhang “may have disagreed with that timeline.”

An Institute for the Study of War analysis opines, “Xi Jinping’s Military Purges Leave Him Increasingly Powerful but Isolated.”

The looming Taiwan invasion timeline clearly comprises the ideologically-driven mandate of the Chinese Communist Party. But many inside the Chinese military understand the complexity of such an operation which by no means assures a certain victory.

From an American viewpoint China’s military purge comes on the heels of the new U.S. National Defense Strategy 2026, which brings a serious and concerted focus to future American ties with and challenges from communist China. The Report stresses:

“Deter China in the Indo-Pacific Through Strength, Not Confrontation. President Trump seeks a stable peace, fair trade, and respectful relations with China.”

The Pentagon report advises:

“Our goal in doing so is not to dominate China; nor is it to strangle or humiliate them. Rather, our goal is simple: To prevent anyone, including China, from being able to dominate us or our allies.”

The document adds, “we will erect a strong denial defense along the First Island Chain. We will also urge and enable key regional allies and partners to do more for our collective defense.”

While not specifically mentioning defending the democratic island of Taiwan claimed by China, the geographical nexus of the First Island chain, the report underscores the importance of the defensive military line extending from Japan, through the Ryukyu islands (Okinawa), to Taiwan, the Philippines and Borneo.

Given its growing economic and strategic importance, the U.S. plans to maintain a favorable balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth asserts, “We will deter China in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation. We will increase burden-sharing with allies and partners around the world.” That’s classic Peace through Strength policy.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]