Special to WorldTribune.com

By John J. Metzler, August 13, 2025

Is there now a serious chance to end Russia’s war in Ukraine? Are both sides in this bloody stalemate finally willing to give peace a chance despite real reservations by both Moscow and Kyiv to keep the fighting going, just a little longer?

More importantly are Ukraine’s backers, notably the United States and key European countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland able to exert enough pressure on Vladimir Putin to make a deal?

A few months ago, it became clear to Moscow that the United States and the Europeans were on the same page to push for additional support for Ukraine’s sovereignty; The geopolitical realignment by the USA-NATO places increased pressure on Russia.

Now President Donald Trump is set to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin during a landmark summit in Alaska as a prelude to presumably further negotiations including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This is long-shot diplomacy which may get a long awaited ceasefire in the war; Or it could be just another opportunity for Putin to smile and stall, to keep the clock running in Kyiv.

While the meeting on American soil (Alaska was once part of Russia until 1867 interestingly) offers Moscow’s leader both the legitimization of diplomatic breakout without being slapped with an ICC arrest warrant, it offers Putin the first in person meeting with Donald Trump since 2018. This certainly Trumps (no pun intended) Putin’s meetings with Arab leaders, a host of African potentates, and Brazil’s Lula da Silva. This is gold standard stuff.

Yet the Ukraine peace talks are set in the shadow of an overlooked backdrop of another diplomatic development very close to Putin’s concerns as it borders Russia’s southern frontier.

Just last week the Trump Administration sponsored a quietly arranged peace agreement between longtime rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan. There’s a poignant lesson here for the Ukraine talks.  Though the mountains and rugged Caucasian region are far removed from the flat steppes of Ukraine, the fact remains that both the longtime antagonists Armenia and Azerbaijan were once, as was Ukraine, also part of the former Soviet Union.

For 35 years, Armenia, a small ancient Christian land has been militarily bullied by a Muslim and oil rich Azerbaijan. Conflicts over borders ensued, fighting flared as recently as two years ago. Equally Azerbaijan borders Iran and has long featured in Teheran’s strategic concerns.

This forgotten conflict in the Caucuses was addressed by American diplomacy as President Trump brokered a deal that ends decades of conflict and offers both sides economic incentives.

So, beyond the style of the Summit what substance can we expect?

First, It’s highly unlikely Vladimir Putin will make the proverbial peace deal. Instead. he will play the moment politically, spin subterfuge and offer hints of future concessions.  The wish that Russia will withdraw troops from the nearly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory it occupies is a dream few hold even in Kyiv. There can be rich rhetorical arguments but there’s a red line the Russian leader can’t cross without looking weak to his own security apparat.  Simply stated, Putin holds a neo-Soviet imperial view of Ukraine in which this former part of the Soviet Union has broken away and dares to confront the Kremlin.  Crimea, with its key naval ports, especially is viewed as a sacred part of the Rodina, the Russian Motherland. Compromise isn’t in the Russian vocabulary.

Second, The U.S. will pressure and cajole Putin and warn he will face wider sanctions.

While tough measures will be threatened, Washington and the Europeans have not broken Russia’s petro-driven economy. Both China and India remain major consumers of Russian petroleum.

Third. A major Russian military offensive still has time for at least six weeks of good weather.  While the Ukrainians are fighting valiantly with additional American and European military supplies, the Russians still have the raw numbers. Though Putin has often stupidly used Russian conscripts and North Korean troops as cannon fodder, the bloodletting has emasculated Ukraine. Can Kyiv seriously fight Moscow to a draw?

While European leaders have welcomed news of the Trump/Putin meeting, the Europeans are pushing for an uncompromising Ukrainian stance towards Moscow. Yet, a new Gallup Poll taken in July, shows “69 percent of Ukrainians say they want a negotiated settlement as soon as possible, while 24 percent support fighting until victory.”

The Trump Administration aims to end this bloody conflict for the families on both sides. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated on FOX News, “The Killing has to end…What Ukraine needs now is a ceasefire.” Indeed so and soon.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]

  Ukraine peace summit: Dramatic setting but the geopolitical realities are stark